Well boys it is finally here, week 14 and man is there a lot on the line. I hope every one had a great Thanksgiving and enjoyed the holiday weekend, but now it is back to business. As I took a hiatus from the blog last week and as well as providing updates in regards to the 6th seed and matchup importance, Wings stepped in and was eager to do so because he loves his little spread sheets and probably already had it done due to Commissioner Cup work. However this graphic will make this a lot easier for yall to see and to understand explanations in the blog.
The pickems are also in a tight race! Nauch and Rob did not do theirs this last week, but still have a chance since this does run through all 18 weeks of the NFL season. While commissioners cup prize money is gone for everyone but myself winning 3rd place, now Gio and Erik fighting for first. Here is a reminder for the prize for the pickems! DO YOUR PICKEMS AND REMEMBER TO DO THE TIEBREAKER. DO NOT NEED TO CHOOSE THAT GAME TO DO THE TIE BREAKER.
There will be 3 payouts. 3rd place will get $25. 2nd place will get $55. First place will get $100.
The current standings are as follows with 5 weeks to go.
1. Erik - 68
2. Chuck - 66
3. Bryan - 65
4. Wings - 64
5. Ryan -62
5. Gio - 62
7. Ant - 61
8. Nauch - 57
8. SCG - 57
10. Rob - 52
Now, before I get started, I just wanted to pull this rule here because of a tie happening in the past and with a division and playoff spots on the line with four 8-5 records and the 6th seed wild card.
From Article X section 6 -
In the event of a scoring tie in a playoff matchup, the tiebreaker will be determined by the Regular Season Head-to-Head record between both teams involved. If their Head-to-Head record is tied, then a winner is determined by total PF in their head-to-head matchups.
This only applies to playoff matchups only, so if for whatever reason someone ties or whatever happens a 8-5-1 record is a better record than a 8-6 record. So this can change some peoples playoff paths. In the result of a tie in PF for the 6th seed, I believe it does go to the better record, however I will let the commissioner make that statement tomorrow for more clarification.
There will be .1 added to every outscoring scenario with no clarification on the tie breaker for 6th seed PF.
Were going to start with 1 and work our way down into explanations on what each team needs to get into the playoffs or win their division (republican only).
Gold = Clinched, Green = More than likely , Red = help i'm in danger
1. Chuck - Playoffs
Chuck has already clinched a 1st round bye and as well as the Democratic Division. Chuck will be 1 of the 2 first division winners in LOD history, while waiting to see if it will be his long time rival Gio joining him or Erik as we know his love for the republicans and Ronald Reagan. Chuck only has 1 thing this week and if he wins he will clinch the 1 seed or if he loses he can still get 1 seed as long as Gio and Erik both lose or if one loses and 1 ties.
2. Gio - Playoffs
Gio has already clinched a playoff spot thanks to his PF. He is currently fighting for a division title. The lowest Gio can fall to being the 4th seed because of the Wings vs Erik matchup creating that buffer. Gio can fall into the 5th seed in the result of an Erik and Wings tie with a Bryan win. (.1 percent)
Clinch Division: With a win over Rob and holding PF lead or Erik L. If a loss, will need Erik to lose as well while still holding PF lead. Can tie and win division still with an Erik tie or loss.
3. Erik - Playoffs
Erik has already clinched a playoff spot thanks to his PF. He is currently fighting for a division title. Erik can drop to the 5th seed with a loss to Wings and wins from Bryan and Gio.
Clinch Division: With a win over Wings and outscoring Gio by 68.9 or a Gio L. if a loss, will need Gio to lose as well while outscoring him by 68.9. Can tie and win division still with a Gio L or Gio tie while outscoring him by 68.9.
4. Bryan - Playoffs
Democratic division already clinched only can fight for playoff spot.
Playoff Spot: Clinches a playoff spot with a win due to Erik vs Wings matchup. Can clinch with a loss as long as Danny loses or ties while holding PF. Highest seed you can finish is 3rd seed. Lowest you can finish is falling out of the playoff picture.
Falling out of playoff spot: Would need to lose and Erik to lose and Danny to win and to be outscore by Danny by 75.7(anything is possible because of Ants comeback).
5. Wings - Playoffs
Democratic division already clinched only can fight for playoff spot.
Playoff spot: Clinches playoff spot with win over Erik. Can clinch with a loss as long as Danny loses or ties. Can clinch playoff spot with a loss as long as he outscores Ant by 4.4. Can finish as high as the 3rd seed. Can finish out of the playoffs.
Falling out of playoff spot: Can fall out of playoff spot with a loss and Danny win and being outscored by Danny by 9.6 and Ant holding his 4.3 PF lead.
6. Danny - Playoffs (Currently 7th seed because of PF, but has 6th overall record currently)
Can not win the republican division.
Playoff spot: Can clinch a playoff spot with a win and Wings loss while out scoring him by 9.6. Can clinch with a win and a Bryan L while outscoring him by 75.7. Can Clinch a playoff spot by outscoring Ant by 13.9. Highest you can finish is 4th(Miracle) lowest you can finish is out of playoffs.
Falling out of playoffs: Falls out of playoffs contention with a Loss or Wings and Bryan win and not outscoring Ant by 13.9.
7. Ryan - Playoffs
Can not win democratic division.
Playoff Spot: Can clinch playoff spot with a win and Soundcloud and Wings L while outscoring Wings by 87.4 and SCG by 77.9. Can also Clinch playoff spot by outscoring SCG by 77.9 and Ant by 91.6. Highest you can finish is the 5th seed. Lowest is out of playoffs.
Falling out of playoffs: Falls out of playoffs with a Loss and not outscoring SCG and Ant.
8. Ant - Playoffs (Currently is the 6th seed because of PF)
Can not win democratic division.
Playoff spot: Holding a PF lead over Wings, SCG and Ryan. If Bryan falls to 6th seed would need to outscore him by 61.9. Can only make playoffs as 6th seed PF.
Falling out of playoff spot: Getting outscore by Wings, SCG and or Ryan based on them winning or losing their matchups.
That is every scenario possible( That I can think off I am not using Chat GPT to give me like 5 more scenarios for whatever reason).
The matchups this week are juicy. There is honestly a lot at stake for every member in this league except for those in Cancun (Both non draft attendees). Here are my bold predictions of the week!
Chuck will win and Hold on to the #1 seed.
Gio will win his matchup against Rob despite Lamar dropping 60 and win the Republican division.
Erik will get the win and hold on to the 3rd seed.
Wings will secure a playoff spot by a high scoring matchup between him and Erik and secure the 4th seed due to Josh Allen's 6 touchdown day
Bryan will lose but fall to the 5th seed.
Ant will make the playoffs with the worst record ever to do so at 5-9.
Soundcloud will win his matchup but miss the playoffs because of the trades he made this season and it will serve a lesson learned to the rookies fall from grace.
Playoff Bracket -
Week 15
1st Chuck Bye week
4th Wings vs 5th Bryan
2nd Gio Bye week
3rd Erik vs 6th Ant
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