Magic Numbers

 

    What a crazy week 10, we saw the ALAS boys fall badly this week. Soundcloud going from 2nd seed with a bye week to now the 6th seed and Wings playing Ant with a win much needed and got spanked. This week had a heavy shake up on standings and different possibilities for playoff scenarios. Its time to break down each teams magic number. This will include making playoffs / how to win division. Remember 6th seed is PF so even if you show clinched in sleeper it is not a guarantee so real breakdown to make playoffs will be here. 

DO YOUR PICKEMS YALL GET ON IT.

    These scenarios will be based on 1-5 seed only. 6th seed PF will follow after. Weekly breakdowns will occur. Strength of schedule will be based on opponents current win percentage and updated each week. playoff/division chance percentage will be based off of SOS and teams PF Average.

Democrats Division 

1. Chuck 8-2:
    
    1 win clinched playoff birth based on remaining league schedule. 2 wins clinches division with a Bryan and Ryan loss based on PF(Unlikely to be overtaken in PF).
99% chance to make playoffs. 92% to win Division.
Strength of schedule: 5th hardest

2. Bryan 7-3:
    
    Clinches a playoff spot with 3 wins(other scenarios possible but simplest way to explain, will get more detailed as weeks go by). To win division needs to win out with Chuck losing 2 games and maintaining PF lead over Ryan. Chuck Loses out and wins 3 games while maintaining pf lead over Ryan. 96% chance to make playoffs. 6% chance to win division
Strength of schedule: 2nd hardest

3. Ryan 7-3:
    
    Clinches a playoff spot with 3 wins(other scenarios possible but simplest way to explain, will get more detailed as weeks go by). To win division needs to win out with Chuck losing 2 games and overtaking PF lead from Bryan. Chuck Loses out and wins 3 games while over taking PF lead from Bryan. 91% chance to make playoffs. 2% chance to win division
Strength of schedule: 4th hardest

4. Wings 5-5 :
    
    Must win out to make playoffs as 5th seed or higher. Wings can only win division if he wins out and Chuck loses out, Bryan and Ryan lose 3 of next 4.
29% Chance to make playoffs. 1% Chance to win division. 
Strength of schedule: 1st hardest.

5. Ant 2-8:
    
    Can only make playoffs on PF. Long shot. 
1% Chance to make playoffs. 0% Chance to win division. 
Strength of schedule: 3rd hardest. 

Republican Division: Does not have a magic number yet for division or Playoff yet due to 3 way tie so here is a breakdown of what each team is facing.

1. Gio 6-4:
    
    Gio currently leads the division based on PF. Gio has the 2nd easiest schedule remaining between the 3 leaders in the Republican division. Based on current PF Gio wins every tie breaker scenario in the division and based on his massive PF lead even if he falls out of division lead and ties for any seed he would own the tie breaker.
97% chance to make playoffs. 57% chance to win division. 
Strength of Schedule: 8th hardest. 

2. Erik 6-4:
    
    Erik is currently behind Gio in PF for the division and highest PF overall in the league. Erik does have the hardest remaining schedule of the 3 teams that are 6-4. However, Eriks PF is what holds him high regardless of win loss tie as Gio only beats him currently and holds a great lead over everyone else that is in conversation to fall in the lower seeds. 
87% chance to make playoffs. 31% chance to win division.
Strength of schedule: 6th hardest. 

3. Soundcloud 6-4: 

    Soundcloud you have the easiest schedule remaining between the 3 of you, but have the hardest road due to your PF. You are honestly in a must win scenario as you are more than likely not catching them in PF. However, between you, Bryan and Ryan, less than 30 points are the difference for you 3 so definitely a big factor still for you to maintain. 
79% Chance to make playoffs. 12% Chance to win division. 
Strength of schedule: 9th hardest. 

4. Rob 2-8: 

    Only chance to make it is PF based. long shot. 
2% Chance to make playoffs. 0% Chance to win division. 
Strength of schedule: 7th hardest. 

5. Nauch 1-9: 

    You are eliminated in everyway, with the chance to set the worst record of all time with 1 win. You can only play upset now. 
0% chance for playoffs and Division. ELIMINATED
Easiest schedule remaining though. 


PF 6th SEED BREAKDOWN: 

    This will only be based with currently 6th seed and under so this list will change based on who wins and who scores what as list will shorten each week based on performances. 

    Obviously here Ant is a long shot, but based on performances from the team above him, this week he is still in it. As you guys can see this is a extremely tight race with with less than 80 points between 1st and 2nd with 4 weeks to go. outscoring someone by 20 points a week is easily possible. This race is definitely going to be a fun one to watch as the 6th seed will likely get a date with either Erik or Gio. 

POWER RANKINGS

1. Chuck - 

    This is pretty obvious still as best record in the league, winner of 7 straight and division leader. He now gets a championship rematch against a desperate wings. Playoffs is the only thing on this guys mind. 

2. Gio - 

    Another 200 point week and a statement win to retake the division lead. 2 in a row now and you get Nauch this week. Losing Wilson is not as bad as it really is due to Justin Fields still throwing him the football, if anything it was a blessing for you to stop starting him. 

3. Erik - 

    Jonathan Taylor can not be stopped. 60 fucking points and it was a wrap from there. You do unfortunately do not have an easy matchup this week despite Rob being 2-8. You guys are historically known for having high scoring matchups against each other as a win this week will leave you to play for more than likely a division title the following week against Gio. 

4. Bryan - 

    You snuck away with a win against Rob due to some last minute scoring in that Packers vs Eagles game as that was really sweaty there for you until pretty late in the 4th quarter. You have no easy task this week against Ant as his team is fully healthy and showed they can put up points last week with an upset over wings. This is a must win as losing here can drop you from 3rd seed to 5th or 6th seed. 

5. Ryan - 

    Ryan, that was a tough way to lose. Henderson rushing for 124 yards and 2 touchdowns on 7 carries with 5 of those carries resulting in 0 yards and the other 2 being for long touchdown bonus points and Achane running the ball 6 times for 94 yards and 2 touchdowns in the 4th quarter was insane. 92 points between the 2 of them. You now go into a must win game this week or you will fall to the 6th seed based on current PF. The LADD show continues and hopefully JJ will finally turn those targets into catches and touchdowns. Big big week. 

6. Soundcloud - 

    Gio beat your ass despite your best efforts. Now you are the 6th seed and not in friendly territory. What started off as a Cinderella story is now looking like you better get home before the clock strikes midnight. Only a game over the 7th seed in wings and while you do hold a good PF lead, in is not enough to not be stressed about. 

7. Wings - 

    A must win game and Ant comes out the shadows like its September 11th, 2001. That was a big loss for you as it makes it that much harder to make playoffs without it being points based. You now get a rematch with the hottest team in the league who might be at full strength with Bucky practicing. You made a run last year, can you do it again? 

8. Rob -

    Lock in and start scoring. You need to start taking thar Prolific #BBLOL energy and applying it to your fantasy team. What would Stefon Do? What would Lindor do? Would they give in or would they get to work and try to make the impossible happen? Time to get to work Rob.

9. Ant - 

    You had a good week so I am giving you another shot to go crazy. Use that Hindu Curry derka derka magic you got and lets see if this is not the last week I mention you.